Abstract

GUTIERREZ R., Roberto. Intra-industry trade and general, partial and macroeconometric equilibrium models: from NAFTA to the Trump age. Econ: teor. práct [online]. 2017, n.47, pp.99-134. ISSN 2448-7481.  https://doi.org/10.24275/etypuam/ne/472017/gutierrez.

Although it is often said that Mexico is more inclined to look at its past than envision its future, from the 1982-83 crisis efforts were made to reverse the poles. A crucial instrument in this regard was the implementation, almost 25 years ago, of NAFTA, which took into account the opinions of experts in the measurement of the levels of sectoral integration (intraindustrial trade) and prediction of the behavior of the economy (general equilibrium and partial equilibrium models, as well as macroeconometric’s). On the one hand, the document examines the relevance of these calculations, based on the same methodology that gave rise to them and on expost quantifications. On the other hand, it proposes that, faced with the option of retreat that has left Mexican trade negotiators the commercial policy of the US Executive, the government should insist not only on diversification and on properly measuring the benefits of integration through the intraindustrial trade index, but to continue the promotion of the domestic market, at least reinforcing the annual increase of 9.5% to minimum wages, decreed in December 2016.

Keywords : NAFTA; Intra-Industry Trade; Economic Growth; Industrial Development; General and Partial Equilibrium Models.