Abstract

HERNANDEZ-JACQUEZ, Luis Fernando  and  MONTES-RAMOS, Frine Virginia. Predictive model of high school students’ dropout risk in Mexico. CienciaUAT [online]. 2020, vol.15, n.1, pp.75-85.  Epub Dec 22, 2020. ISSN 2007-7858.  https://doi.org/10.29059/cienciauat.v15i1.1349.

National high school dropout rates in Mexico, fluctuate between 14.5 % and 16.5 %, and empirical research suggests that dropout is mostly associated with failure, and that this in turn, is related to issues such as lack of learning self-regulation and study habits. The objective of this research was to establish a model that predicts the risk of high school students’ drop in Mexico. A quantitative, non-experimental and cross-sectional research was developed. The independent variable, which was the risk of dropping out of school, was assessed through the School Dropout Questionnaire, while the predictive variables study habits, self-regulation learning and learning styles (as requested by the participating institution) were assessed through the Study Habits Questionnaire, the Learning Strategies and Motivation Questionnaire (CEAM II), and the Honey - Alonso Learning Styles Questionnaire (CHAEA). To determine the predictive equation, the binary logistic regression model was used using the “Wald backward elimination steps” method, with a sample of 192 first semester students of an agricultural technological baccalaureate, whose ages ranged between 14 and 16 years. A model that includes the dimensions of note taking study planning strategies related to study habits; and self-efficacy for learning, related to self-regulation was obtained. This model explained 37.0 % of the phenomenon. It is concluded the establishment of dropout risk prediction mechanisms could be improve or increase the development of the aforementioned dimensions in order to reduce to a certain extent the risk of dropping out.

Keywords : dropout; learning self-regulation; high school; study habits; mathematical model.