Abstract

MORENO ALVAREZ, Alejandro. 2021 Federal Election in Mexico: Plebiscitary or Identitary?. Rev. mex. opinión pública [online]. 2022, n.32, pp.15-31.  Epub Apr 08, 2022. ISSN 2448-4911.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2022.32.80605.

The 2021 election in Mexico can be described as plebiscitary, as the country’s mid-term elections usually are, especially since the approval of the government was the most significant variable for the vote according to a national exit poll. Presidential approval that year surpassed other variables that usually carry a lot of weight among voters, such as party identification or ideological identity, suggesting that the evaluation of the government’s performance was fundamental in this election. However, the categorization of this election as plebiscitary depends on the meaning given to presidential approval. This article analyzes not just the role of the president’s approval but which factors help understand this variable. The results show that presidential approval does indeed contain elements of citizen evaluation of government performance, but also very important identity components that do not necessarily imply a performance indicator but rather empathy and group identity attachment. This conclusion paves the way for reflecting on the plebiscitary or identitary nature not just of the 2021 vote but of what so far electoral behavior literature has taken for granted: the evaluative nature of presidential approval.

Keywords : 2021 elections; presidential approval; socio-political identities; exit polls.