Abstract

GOMEZ VILCHIS, Ricardo Román. Populism or Rational Loyalty towards President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO)? (The Profile of the Supporter of the 4T and the 2021 Intermediate Election). Rev. mex. opinión pública [online]. 2022, n.32, pp.77-95.  Epub Apr 08, 2022. ISSN 2448-4911.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.24484911e.2022.32.80376.

What is the profile of the supporters of governments classified as populist? Specifically, as a case study: Who supports the 4T (the “Fourth Transformation”)? Based on an ordered probit analysis, this work is among the first to argue, offering hard, current data and solid empirical evidence, that the profile of the supporter of the 4T is a mixture of a certain “populism” and a “rational loyalty” in the voter. Although the concentration of the power of a charismatic leader and positions and policies with clientelistic traits (typical features of populism) are most staunchly supported by the least enlightened and those with scarce economic resources, variables traditionally considered typical of a rational voter (an evaluation of the country’s economy and of the citizen’s pocket) have a strong impact on support for the 4T. This is verified with a survey carried out in 2019 that focused on the profile of the 4T supporter and the results of a national exit poll from 2021 that focused on the profile of the voter who supported MORENA (National Regeneration Movement) in the mid-term elections of 2021.

Keywords : AMLO; 4T; elections; partisan; populism; voter.