Abstract

ROSALES HERRERA, D. et al. Estrategias de movilidad basadas en la teoría de percolación para evitar la diseminación de enfermedades: COVID-19. Rev. mex. fis. [online]. 2022, vol.68, n.1.  Epub June 23, 2023. ISSN 0035-001X.  https://doi.org/10.31349/revmexfis.68.011701.

Human mobility is an important factor in the spatial propagation of infectious diseases. On the other hand, the control strategies based on mobility restrictions are generally unpopular and costly. These high social and economic costs make it very important to design global protocols where the cost is minimized and effects maximized. In this work, we calculate the percolation threshold of the spread in a network of a disease. In particular, we found the number of roads to close and regions to isolate in the Puebla State, México, to avoid the global spread of COVID-19. Computational simulations taking into account the proposed strategy show a potential reduction of 94 % of infections. This methodology can be used in broader and different areas to help in the design of health policies.

Keywords : Percolation theory; percolation threshold; disease propagation; COVID-19.

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