Abstract

RAMIREZ-DE-GARAY, David. Writing on the Wall: The Patterns of the Spread of Violent Crime in Mexico (1990-2010). Foro int [online]. 2016, vol.56, n.4, pp.977-1018. ISSN 0185-013X.

Despite the fact that violent crime is a phenomenon closely studied by social sciences, little attention has been paid to examining the spread of violent crime over a territory and particular time period. In light of the lack of empirical research, this paper presents the results of an analysis of the spatio-temporal spread of the homicide rate in Mexico (1990-2010) with the aim of identifying possible patterns of spread of homicide in the country. To achieve this it employs a method of identifying and classifying patterns based on techniques for exploratory analysis of spatial data. The results show two types of pattern of spatio-temporal spreading: contagion and hierarchical spread. However, the number of cases confirming this is very low both in spatial terms and in terms of frequency. The contribution of this paper suggests promising avenues of further research and presents evidence that may be useful in the design of preventative policies.

Keywords : spread; homicide; violent crime; contagion; spatial analysis.