Abstract

TAPIA HERNANDEZ, Edgar; REDDY, Elizabeth A.  and  OROS AVILES, Laura Josabeth. Challenges and uncertainties in the prediction and prevention of seismic risk. Ing. sísm [online]. 2017, n.96, pp.66-87. ISSN 0185-092X.

This paper discusses from a multidisciplinary view, the state of the art of seismic predictions related to science-based studies based on physical precursors, methods based on statistical patterns and the minimum requirements to be considered in order to identify reasonable methods; especially, those aimed at prevention of seismic disaster. Culture of prevention, historical changes related to vulnerable and marginal populations, progress in relation to scientific development, anthropological evidence on the effectiveness of the predictions and their influence on the culture prevention to face common risks, seismic alert system and decisions and investment expectations derived from the predictions are discussed.

Keywords : earthquake; prediction; prevention; anthropology; alert system; investment expectations.

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