Abstract

LOPEZ MARTIN, Bernabé; RAMIREZ DE AGUILAR, Alberto  and  SAMANO PENALOZA, Daniel. Considerations regarding fiscal policy and inflation expectations in Mexico. Inv. Econ [online]. 2020, vol.79, n.312, pp.63-88.  Epub Dec 28, 2020. ISSN 0185-1667.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2020.312.75372.

This document estimates the model of Sargent, Williams y Zha (2009) in which inflation is determined by fiscal deficits financed through monetary expansions as well as inflation expectations. The estimation of the model suggests that the historical evolution of fiscal deficits is key to explaining the dynamics of inflation in our country. Before the autonomy of the Bank of Mexico in April 1994, the model suggests that the monetization of these deficits would have determined the dynamics of inflation in Mexico. Subsequently, evidence is found that suggests the presence of indirect channels through which fiscal deficits via adjustments in the sovereign risk premium and in the nominal exchange rate have still had some impact on inflation expectations. The latter highlights the importance of fiscal discipline, in addition to the autonomy of the Central Bank, to preserve an environment of price stability.

Keywords : Inflation; inflation expectations; fiscal deficit; E31; E42; E52; E63.

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