Abstract

ALBARRAN MACIAS, Dulce; MEJIA REYES, Pablo  and  LOPEZ HERRERA, Francisco. Synchronization of the business cycles of Mexico and the United States: A dynamic correlation approach. Inv. Econ [online]. 2022, vol.81, n.319, pp.37-62.  Epub Feb 27, 2023. ISSN 0185-1667.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fe.01851667p.2022.319.77444.

The objective of this paper is to analyze the business cycle synchronization of Mexico and the United States over the period 1981-2017 by estimating a dynamic conditional correlation coefficient that allows us to have an estimate for each time period. The results, obtained from different production indicators and different de-trending methods, show an increase in this synchronization after the opening of the Mexican economy in the mid-eighties, especially during the common recessions of 2001-2002 and 2008-2009, and some isolated drops explained by differences in the growth rates of both economies as well as a sustained decline in the post-Great Recession phase resulting from the decline of international trade.

Keywords : Business cycles; synchronization; dynamic correlation; Mexico; United States.

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