Abstract

SANCHEZ Y SANCHEZ, Carlos Luis. Rational Partisanship in Mexico City: 2012 vs. 2018. Rev. mex. cienc. polít. soc [online]. 2022, vol.67, n.244, pp.399-427.  Epub Apr 17, 2023. ISSN 0185-1918.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fcpys.2448492xe.2022.244.76710.

This article analyzes the patterns of change and stability of partisanship in Mexico City during the 2012 and 2018 Head of Government elections. Based on the information collected in exit polls conducted with voters, it focuses on four phenomena related to party identification in Mexico City over a period of six years: first, the stability of partisanship at the aggregate level from 2012 to 2018; second, the electoral realignment that resulted in the emergence and consolidation of party identification with the National Regeneration Movement (Morena); third, a strengthening of the partisan vote, as reflected in the weakening of the crossover voting and split-ticket voting from one election to the other, which indicates that party identification was an important predictor of the vote in the election of Head of Government in Mexico City in 2018; lastly -based on a multivariate analysis that allowed for broadly explaining the determinants of partisanship-, it was possible to establish that the most significant characteristics associated with the PRD are now constitutive of political identification with Morena, indicating that a model for the formation of party identities survives, which is hereby referred to as rational partisanship.

Keywords : rational partisanship; party identification; realignment; partisan vote; Mexico City elections.