Abstract

MEJIA REYES, Pablo; OCHOA DIAZ, Sandra  and  SANCHEZ PENA, Gina. Public income and business cycles in Mexico: An analysis of structural change. Contad. Adm [online]. 2022, vol.67, n.4, pp.178-203.  Epub Mar 17, 2023. ISSN 0186-1042.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fca.24488410e.2022.2850.

The aim of this paper is to analyze the relationship between public revenues and the business cycle (product-elasticity) in Mexico over the period 1980.I-2018.III, allowing for possible structural changes. To do so, bivariate econometric models of several public revenues on the business cycle indicator are estimated. Our results suggest the existence of changes in those relationships that can be associated to modifications in the tax policy and variations in the international price and the exportation platform of oil. A major implication of these findings is that total public revenues are highly dependent on income and consumption taxes, something that should be taken into account in a possible fiscal reform along with the estimated magnitude of the relationships for the most recent period.

Keywords : E23; E32; E62; C20; business cycles; production; taxes; oil revenues; structural change.