Abstract

GERMAN-SOTO, Vicente  and  GAMEZ GARZA, Cesáreo. The productivity business cycle and its relationship with the political cycle in Mexico, 1993.1 to 2014.4. Estud. Econ. (México, D.F.) [online]. 2017, vol.32, n.1, pp.65-94. ISSN 0186-7202.

The political-business cycle (PBC) theory sustains that economies are positively influenced in the last year of each government administration and also they tend to slowdown in the first year. To investigate this hypothesis, we analyze the cycle of productivity of the manufacturing industry in Mexico along 1993.1-2014.4. Results from dynamic models indicate that strength of productivity is relatively minor for the quarters 1 and 4, a finding that is related to the political cycle because elasticity also falls in the quarters of the first year of government and increases in the last.

Keywords : Political-business cycle; productivity; unit roots.