Abstract

ELIZONDO, Rocio. Monthly GDP estimates in Mexico based on the IGAE. Estud. Econ. (México, D.F.) [online]. 2019, vol.34, n.2, pp.197-241. ISSN 0186-7202.

This article presents three methods to estimate the monthly GDP in Mexico: (1) a deterministic approach; (2) an extension of Denton method; and, (3) the Kalman filter. In these methods the monthly GDP is regarded as an unobservable variable that is approximated us-ing only the IGAE. Results show that the three methods do a good job in adjustingthe observed data of the quarterly GDP within the sample, with average adjustment errors of at most 0.1%. Additionally, given the dynamic structure of the Kalman filter method and that under different estimation periods it was found that the parameters corresponding remained relatively stable. Therefore, this method was used to perform out-of-sample forecasts.

Keywords : gross domestic product; global indicator of economic activity (IGAE); Kalman filter; Denton method; forecasts; I10; I12; J21; J30.

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