Abstract

ROJAS VALDES, Rubén Irvin. The economic benefits and costs of COVID-19 mitigation measures in Mexico. Estud. Econ. (México, D.F.) [online]. 2021, vol.36, n.1, pp.27-56.  Epub Oct 18, 2021. ISSN 0186-7202.  https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v36i1.415.

In this paper I calculate the daily flows of COVID-19 cases under the scenario of social distance and restricted economic activity implemented during the first months after the beginning of the epidemic, and under a counterfactual uncontrolled scenario with no mitigation measures. I estimate that social distance policies reduce the number of COVID-19 cases by 33%, saving over 292,000 lives. The benefits of these measures are monetized as 526 billion USD. Under a plausible economic recovery trajectory, I estimate that the net cost of mitigation in terms of output gap is equal to 35% of Mexico’s 2019 GDP.

Keywords : COVID-19; Mexico; cost-benefit; epidemic; H12; D16; H42.