Abstract

RIVAS VALDIVIA, Juan Carlos. Sustainability of public debt in Mexico, before and after COVID-19, 2018-2024. Estud. Econ. (México, D.F.) [online]. 2021, vol.36, n.1, pp.57-87.  Epub Oct 18, 2021. ISSN 0186-7202.  https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v36i1.414.

This document presents an accounting and econometric estimate for the debt sustainability analysis for Mexico for the 2018-2024 period. The study places special emphasis on debt trajectories and on internal and external factors that can modify these paths, including the COVID-19 pandemic. The analysis concludes that some of the extreme internal or external shocks modeled on the dynamics of public debt in Mexico put the sustainability of its trajectory in the medium and long term at risk for the country.

Keywords : debt; sustainability; economic growth; México; H630; H680; E620; F470; C510.