Abstract

CORONA, Francisco; ORRACA, Pedro  and  LOPEZ-PEREZ, Jesús. Evaluating different methods of potential GDP estimates: The case of Mexico. Estud. Econ. (México, D.F.) [online]. 2022, vol.37, n.2, pp.285-313.  Epub Nov 14, 2022. ISSN 0186-7202.  https://doi.org/10.24201/ee.v37i2.432.

With the purpose of contributing to the literature that focuses on the estimation of Potential Gross Domestic Product (GDP), this study evaluates four different estimation methods of Potential GDP using quarterly data from Mexico for the period 1998:Q1-2020:Q2. The procedures used for its estimation are: 1) Heuristic methods, 2) The Ho-drick Prescott filter, 3) Non-Stationary Dynamic Factor Model, and 4) The Permanent-Transient (PT) decomposition of Gonzalo and Granger (1995). We conclude that, econometrically, the best results are obtained when using the PT decomposition.

Keywords : HP Filter; PT decomposition; heuristic methods; Dynamic Factor Models; potential GDP.

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