Abstract

URQUIDI, Víctor L.. Outlook for the World Population. Estud. demogr. urbanos [online]. 2005, vol.20, n.1, pp.9-21.  Epub Oct 17, 2019. ISSN 2448-6515.  https://doi.org/10.24201/edu.v20i1.1227.

This paper presents the results of the population forecasts for countries that in 2003 had over 10 million inhabitants, divided into three groups according to GDP per capita levels in 2001: developed countries, countries in transition and developing countries. The latter includes two sub-groups: those of the medium and low level. Reference is made to certain volumes of population and the behavior of the population growth rate, fertility and migration. In developing countries, emphasis is placed on population volumes and the heterogeneity of fertility, migration and mortality levels. On the basis of this review, the author doubts that the goals for stabilizing the population between 2050 and 2060 will be met and stresses the need to link demographic spheres to the economic, social and financial spheres.

Keywords : GDP per capita; population growth rates; fertility; mortality; developed countries; countries in transition and developing countries.