Abstract

RAMIREZ, José Carlos; MORELOS, José B.  and  MATA MATA, Leovardo. The Contemporary Nature of the Essay or Why One Should Not Forget Malthus. Estud. demogr. urbanos [online]. 2011, vol.26, n.1, pp.7-32. ISSN 2448-6515.

The document presents a model based on Bernoulli’s lag differential equation to formalize the stable dynamics, with oscillations from Malthus’ population principle. The aim is to use new mathematical and conceptual tools that will make the Essay’s arguments useful in the study of present-day demographic problems. The simulation undertaken here for the case of Mexico exemplifies one of the many ways the principle can be rehabilitated for a better interpretation of the phases of demographic transition or the conditions of stability and convergence of a middle-income population in the long term. The main conclusions of the model question the loss undergone by demography as a result of being assimilated into traditional economic growth models without incorporating the study of oscillations.

Keywords : Malthus’ principle; lag differential equation; stability with oscillations; convergence of logistic trajectories; population projections.