Abstract

SILVA, Eliud  and  ORDORICA, Manuel. Multivariate Population Forecasts with Time Series: The Case of the MCMZ Contrasted with the 2010 Census Data. Estud. demogr. urbanos [online]. 2013, vol.28, n.1, pp.167-188. ISSN 2448-6515.  https://doi.org/10.24201/edu.v28i1.1442.

This article uses multivariate time series to show that it is feasible to undertake population forecasts using this perspective and shows how they are satisfactory according to data from the Population and Housing Census 2010 for the Mexico City Metropolitan Zone (MCMZ). It explains the methodology used to make predictions based on disaggregating techniques, adjustments and multivariate forecast estimates. The methodological tools capable of making effective forecasts are regarded as essential to developing a wide range of public programs whose primary goal is sustainable development.

Keywords : time series; compatibility; multivariate forecasts; VAR (p) model; forecast horizon.

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