Abstract

PRIETO-GONZALEZ, R.; CORTES-HERNANDEZ, V. E.  and  MONTERO-MARTINEZ, M. J.. Variability of the standardized precipitation index over México under the A2 climate change scenario. Atmósfera [online]. 2011, vol.24, n.3, pp.243-249. ISSN 0187-6236.

The 12-month Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to identify and assess drought severity in México during the 1949-2098 period under the A2 emissions scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The analysis indicates more frequent and severe drought events in México, shown by a negative trend of the 12-month projected SPI time series. Furthermore, this study concludes that projected future drought events would surpass the time-length, magnitude and frequency of those modelled during the second half of the 20th Century.

Keywords : Drought; SPI; climate change; A2 scenario.