Abstract

HERNANDEZ LAOS, Enrique  and  BENITEZ LINO, Araceli. La pobreza y el ciclo económico en México, 2005-2012. Econ: teor. práct [online]. 2014, n.40, pp.61-102. ISSN 2448-7481.

The years 2008-2009 witnessed the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. It is in this context that we discuss the quarterly trajectory of the index of extreme poverty in Mexico, based on estimates of the Consejo Nacional de Evaluación de la Política de Desarrollo Social (CONEVAL) (Mexican council for the evaluation of social development policies). The article examines the relation between this course and developments in Mexico’s labour market between 2005 and 2012. Statistical data show that the quantitative effects of open unemployment rates on the index of extreme poverty are similar to those exerted by the growth of the informal economy, the impact of which is characterized by a quarterly lag. The essay shows how the sectorial and regional effects of the economic cycle on the labour market gave rise to a convergent path among the rates of extreme poverty in different states during the recessive phase of the cycle that affected the country’s economy.

Keywords : extreme poverty; labor market; unemployment; business cycle.