Abstract

CERVANTES JIMENEZ, Miguel; LOPEZ SARABIA, Pablo  and  GARCIA SAMANO, Pedro Alejandro. Los ciclos políticos en México, 1960-2011. Econ: teor. práct [online]. 2014, n.40, pp.195-235. ISSN 2448-7481.

The present investigation has the aim to prove the existence of a political cycle in the Mexican economy for the period from 1960 to 2011, which could allow the current government to affect strategic economic variables during elections in order to impact the economic cycle and have influence over the voters’ decision and keep power. The variables that were used are the real GDP, public spending, the monetary base and the inflation rate on a quarterly basis. Two econometric models were estimated, one for the ordinary least squares method and the other through autoregressive vectors for this period, although two subperiods were built (1960-1983 and 1984-2011) due to the over-indebtedness recorded by Mexico in 1982. The results in both methodologies suggest the presence of a political cycle in the Mexican economy, although the effects are more significant in the first period; we assume that in the second period, the effects are weaker because the political alternation has reduced the possibility of an overall impact, for a more focused one in certain states and municipalities. Finally, we present a proposal to amend Article 41 of the Constitution of Mexico, in order to remove economic distortions that politicians cause at election time.

Keywords : public election; political cycle; fiscal policy; elections; econometric model.