Abstract

LANTERI, Luis N.. Determinantes de los precios reales del petróleo y su impacto sobre las principales variables macroeconómicas: EU, España, Noruega y Argentina. Econ: teor. práct [online]. 2014, n.41, pp.45-70. ISSN 2448-7481.

This paper analyzes the main macroeconomic determinants of real oil prices (global growth, monetary policy, dollar exchange rate). It also assesses empirically the effects of oil prices shocks on economic activity, employ and domestic prices of some importing countries (United States and Spain), exporters (Norway) and self-sufficient in energy (Argentina). The paper uses SVAR models, with short-term restrictions, covering a period pning the last four decades. The results show that, for importing countries, the effects of an increase in oil prices on real GDP growth and employment differ from those of an oil price decrease.

Keywords : real oil prices; macroeconomic determinants; economic activity and employment; SVAR; non-lineal models.

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