Abstract

MEJIA REYES, Pablo; REYES HERNANDEZ, Marlen R.  and  MELQUIADES RAMIREZ, Blanca I.. Evidence of Politic Budgetary Cycles in the Estado de Mexico. Econ: teor. práct [online]. 2016, n.45, pp.207-234. ISSN 2448-7481.

The aim of this paper is to determine the existence of political budget cycles associated to the elections of governors in the Estado de Mexico (Mexico) over the period 1980-2011. To address the subject, the characteristics of the government expenditure data are analyzed in a first moment looking for preliminary evidence. Afterwards, we estimate extended autoregressive models that incorporate electoral (dummy) variables and control for the effects of the business cycle. The results show evidence of political budget cycle in administrative expenditure and public debt, but only episodic evidence of opportunistic behavior in total expenditure (election of 1993) and transfers (elections of 1987 and 1999).

Keywords : public expenditure; public debt; political budget cycle; Mexico.

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