Abstract

CALDERON VILLARREAL, Cuauhtémoc; GARCIA RUIZ, Reyna Susana  and  CRUZ AKE, Salvador. Commercial and industrial synchronization in NAFTA, a study on phase synchronization. Econ: teor. práct [online]. 2017, n.46, pp.5-40. ISSN 2448-7481.  https://doi.org/10.24275/etypuam/ne/462017/calderon.

In this paper, we contrast the hypothesis that individual growth cycles of the three countries that form the area of the North America Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) in the period 1993 - 2015 have tended to be synchronized, for which we use the technique of phase synchronization. This allows us to establish causality between economic variables without making assumptions of sphericity or ergodicity, traditional on econometric modeling. This paper provides empirical evidence to confirm that individual business cycles in Canada, Mexico, and the United States are synchronized with industrial fluctuations in the United States, which act as triggers of change for fluctuations in the NAFTA area. In addition, measurements of the duration of the linkage of the phase synchronization within each individual cycle and in all three cycles within NAFTA are made, likewise hitch (and loss) periods are linked with the macroeconomic performance of the three economies studied.

Keywords : Juglar; Bussiness Cycle; Economic Integration.