Abstract

FELIX VERDUZCO, Gustavo; CASTRO LUGO, David  and  ABOITES MANRIQUE, Gilberto. New US Trade Barriers to Automotive Imports and Potential Effects on Regional Employment. Econ: teor. práct [online]. 2018, n.spe4, pp.125-175. ISSN 2448-7481.  https://doi.org/10.24275/etypuam/ne/e042018/felix.

The renegotiation of NAFTA in the coming months is an inescapable fact and there are fears about the imposition of barriers to imports from Mexico, especially in the automotive industry (AI). The changes would disrupt the operation of an industry that operates with a logic of global competition, in which Mexico is a link to save production costs. The effects in the country would not be negligible since the AI is the most dynamic in the opening period, with significant contributions to exports, GDP and employment, especially in fifteen regions where the decline in ai would have serious implications for jobs. This research analyzes the possible consequences of new us barriers to automotive imports. The analysis with time series on the employment of four sectors shows Granger causality from AI to other activities. With this base, the VEC methodology is used and four scenarios are estimated that assume different levels of reduction of the automotive activity. The results indicate heterogeneous effects between the regions, widely affecting those areas more dependent on AI. Furthermore, under each scenario the magnitude of jobs loss in all economic activities is calculated.

Keywords : Automotive industry; Trade barriers; Regional employment; VEC models; C3; C53; F16; O14; R11.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )