Abstract

GODINEZ PLACENCIA, José Alberto. Causalidad del precio futuro de la Bolsa de Chicago sobre los precios físicos de maíz blanco en México. Estud. soc [online]. 2007, vol.15, n.29, pp.203-223. ISSN 0188-4557.

Since 1993 the Mexican federal government, through the agency called Apoyos y Servicios a la Comercialización Agropecuaria (ASERCA), has been using futures and options from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) to hedge the white corn spot prices risk. The international hedging is effective if there is a causal leadership of the US # 2 yellow corn futures prices over the Mexican white corn spot prices. However, the results of the procedures of the auto regression vector model (impulse-response function, variance decomposition, and Granger causality) rejected this conditional statement for the weekly prices included in the period between 1998 and 2005.

Keywords : International hedging; risk; price; ARV.