Abstract

LOPEZ GRANADOS, Erna Martha; BOCCO, Gerardo  and  MENDOZA CANTU, Manuel Eduardo. Prediction about changes in land-use: The case of Morelia. Invest. Geog [online]. 2001, n.45, pp.39-55. ISSN 2448-7279.

The research described herein investigates the patterns of land-use change in a mid-sized, fast-growing city in Mexico during the last 35 years It uses aerial photographs from 1960, 1975 and 1990 as well as Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Interest focuses in exploring the relationships between urban growth and its effects on landscape, as wetl as between urban expansion and population growth. Results indicate that the city of Morelia increased 600% in size from 1960 to 1997. Predictive models of Markov Chains and linear regression analysis have been used to predict the direction of land use change in the next 30 years. The Markovian model has a low prediction level for changes in land cover and land use in the study area. However, linear regression analyses for the relationship between population size and urban surface allow the construction of a more robust model with a better predictive power regarding city growth. The approach used here could be extrapolated for similar areas characterized by urban growth and changes in land cover.

Keywords : Land-use change; urban growth; Geographic Information System; Markov Chains and regression analyses.