Abstract

VEGA MORA, Leonel  and  DIAZ, Fernando Javier. Comprehensive volcanic risk assessment of Cerro Machín, Colombia. Invest. Geog [online]. 2013, n.81, pp.66-78. ISSN 2448-7279.

The Cerro Machín Volcano (CMV) is located in the Central Cordillera of Colombia. Given the chemical composition, magnitude and extent of past eruptions, it is recognized as a explosive volcano with potential of great damage, which could affect future activity intensely for an extensive period (months to years) in a very strategic region for the country's economy, which covers areas belonging to the departments of Tolima, Quindio, Valle del Cauca and Cundinamarca, where about 1 million people live. This paper presents the methodology and results of the "Integral Volcanic Risk Assessment of Cerro Machin - Colombia", made in 2009 by the Policy, Information and Management Research Group (PIGA) of the Engineering Faculty, National University of Colombia, taking as its starting point the study "Assessment of potential volcanic threat from Cerro Machin" presented earlier in 2002 by the Servicio Geológico Colombiano (SGC). Consequently, a new equation for risk assessment was generated, based on the assessment of intrinsic threat indices and indices of vulnerability; the first based on the degree of intensity, duration, extent and accumulating threats, and second, depending on the degree of exposure of the spatial and temporal elements (social, economic, institutional and ecosystem) and their responsiveness to intrinsic and extrinsic threats (Vega, 2005). With these equations and using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), for each analysis scenario considered geospatial modeling level-risk mapping of each pixel of the territorial area of study was performed. This modeling integrates spatial information across the study area, which allows one to obtain, according to a predetermined logical evaluation framework, both the total risk exposure of each element, as well as the overall risk generated by each threat. Finally, for each stage of analysis both the Total Risk Maps as Escape Routes Maps, and potential areas for relocation hostels transient and/or permanent population and population centers are generated. The specific area of study is located entirely in the Department of Tolima involving a population of approximately 22 000 people and an area of 80 000 hectares in the rural and urban area of the municipality of Cajamarca and the villages of Toche, Tapias and Coello-Cocora, Gamboa, Laureles and Florida of Ibagué (CORTOLIMA, 2006).

Keywords : Volcanic threat; vulnerability; risk.

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