Abstract

CRUZ-RIVERA, Reynaldo  and  ERTEL, Jürgen. Current and future generation of end-of-life products in Mexico, the automotive vehicles case. Rev. Int. Contam. Ambient [online]. 2008, vol.24, n.3, pp.117-130. ISSN 0188-4999.

The present work carries out an approximation in the calculation of the current number of End-of-Life Vehicles (ELV) in México. The vehicles taken into account are passenger cars and light trucks, which due to their large number represent almost 70% of the total vehicular fleet in México. This work describes, in a first instance, the diverse factors affecting the number of ELV; after this, the available information about the most relevant features of the Mexican fleet is presented. Based on historical data, it is estimated that current number of ELV in México is around 690,000 units. In the second part, two probable scenarios are established for the future growth of the Mexican vehicular fleet. Using these data as inputs, it is implemented the Weibull distribution. The iterative implementation of this tool generates the curves that describe the retirement of vehicles in the midterm. The result of this implementation estimates that the number of ELV for 2020 is around one million units.

Keywords : ELV; vehicular retirement; Weibull distribution; vehicular fleet; special waste.