Abstract

MARQUEZ ROMO, Cristian. Determinants of violence across Mexican states? Partisan turnover and criminal fragmentation as explanatory variables. Perf. latinoam. [online]. 2022, vol.30, n.60, 00006.  Epub May 31, 2024. ISSN 0188-7653.  https://doi.org/10.18504/pl3060-006-2022.

While some Mexican states have reached levels of violence similar to those of the most violent countries, others have maintained levels close to the most peaceful ones. What drives this violence? This paper joins the literature that attributes the increase in violence to the breakdown of informal pacts and the fragmentation of organized crime at the subnational level. Using a novel dataset, we analyze the evolution of violence among Mexican states between 2000 and 2017. The results of Poisson, negative binomial, and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression models suggest that violence levels have been significantly higher in entities that simultaneously experienced higher turnover rates and higher criminal fragmentation levels. We stress the relevance of using different methodological approaches, linking the literature on subnational violence with the development of state-sponsored protection rackets.

Keywords : subnational violence; criminal fragmentation; partisan turnover; state-sponsored protection rackets; Mexico.

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