Abstract

SALUDJIAN, Alexis. Flux de capital et integration regionale: une étude econometrique des principaux determinants de l'instabilite macro-economique dans le Cone Sud-Americain. Prob. Des [online]. 2006, vol.37, n.147, pp.107-134. ISSN 0301-7036.

The severe macro-economic volatility of the South American countries since the end of the 1970s raises questions among economists about the development strategies they have been following. Regional economic integration within MERCOSUR and the economic and financial opening are assumed to be factors of macroeconomic stabilization. To verify those hypotheses, we study the corollaries of macroeconomic volatility in MERCOSUR in the period 1976-2001, distinguishing two sub-groups of countries (Argentina/Uruguay and Brazil/Paraguay). We are using our statistical data, on the one hand, to bring to light the shortcomings of open regionalism and to confirm the concept of demercosurization, and, on the other hand, to confirm the volatile role played by foreign capital flows.

Keywords : MERCOSUR; regional integration; econometric study; macroeconomic volatility; capital flows.