Abstract

FISHER, Eloy. Automatic Stabilization and Social Security: Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica and Chile. Prob. Des [online]. 2013, vol.44, n.173, pp.09-29. ISSN 0301-7036.

This article presents an empirical model to estimate to what extent social security systems have served as an automatic stabilizer in select Latin American countries (Brazil, Mexico, Costa Rica and Chile), to measure the impact of social security as a counter-cyclical lever at the public policy level. Our estimate finds certain counter-cyclical features on the side of contributions, although expenditures for benefits did not reveal significant effects. On the net level, significant inflationary effects cancel each other out. Undoubtedly, maintaining a prudent macroeconomic approach is also a guarantee of welfare for growing numbers of pensioners. As such, it is imperative to strengthen these programs as part of a series of public policies that not only serve to eliminate poverty among vulnerable groups, but also to ensure important and unrecognized macroeconomic features.

Keywords : the macroeconomics of social security; automatic stabilization; social security systems in Brazil; Mexico; Costa Rica and Chile.