Abstract

CRUZ RODRIGUEZ, Ignacio Javier. Air cargo and economic growth in the Mexican states: 1992-2019. Prob. Des [online]. 2022, vol.53, n.210, pp.129-153.  Epub Dec 05, 2022. ISSN 0301-7036.  https://doi.org/10.22201/iiec.20078951e.2022.210.6983.

This article seeks to examine the causal relationship between air cargo and the economic activity of Mexican states. Analysis was conducted using Pedroni/Johansen cointegration tests, followed by Granger tests to analyze the long term and Wald tests for the short term, as well as an error correction model (VECM). The analysis was carried out for total cargo, which was then divided into domestic cargo on the one hand and international cargo on the other. The findings suggest the existence of long-term equilibrium and bidirectionality when total cargo is aggregated, although the causalities become unidirectional when cargo is disaggregated. These findings are then discussed in light of possible public policies.

Keywords : air transport; cargo; cointegration; error correction model (VECM).