Abstract

MANZANILLA-QUINONES, Ulises; DELGADO-VALERIO, Patricia; PEDRAZA-SANTOS, Martha Elena  and  MOLINA-SANCHEZ, Agustín. Environmental suitability modeling in the identification of potential sites for dendrochronological data collection. Madera bosques [online]. 2023, vol.29, n.1, e2912464.  Epub Nov 24, 2023. ISSN 2448-7597.  https://doi.org/10.21829/myb.2023.2912464.

Currently, few studies involve spatial modeling of the environment where trees grow in the identification of potential sites for dendrochronological data collection in Mexico. The present study aimed to model the environmental suitability to identify potential sites for dendrochronological data collection of Pinaceae from Michoacán, Mexico. Based on records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and the herbarium of the Institute of Biology (MEXU) of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), field observations and biophysical variables, the environmental suitability of 15 Pinaceae from Michoacán was modeled. From the total data, 75% was used to train and 25% to validate the models in MaxEnt. The evaluation of the models was performed using AUC, partial-area ROC (partial Roc), and Z tests. Potential sites were identified by locating the areas predicted by the models within the municipalities and natural protected areas of Michoacán. The results of the AUC, partial Roc and Z tests presented good and reliable performance (p < 0.01). The variables that most influenced the identification of potential sites for dendrochronological data collection were Bio7, Bio17, Bio19, Bio16 and Bio8. The estimated areas of environmental suitability ranged from 753.97 to 166 689.35 ha. Besides, 12 of 15 species are in Tancítaro, Uruapan, and Nuevo Parangaricutiro, specifically within the Pico de Tancítaro, where there is a potential of nine species. This proposal intends to use the potential distribution models as an auxiliary tool in the identification of potential sites for dendrochronological data collection.

Keywords : spatial analysis; temperate forests; dendrochronology; potential distribution; ecological niche; environmental variables.