Abstract

GUEVARA-ESCOBAR, Aurelio et al. Potential distribution of some leguminous shrubs in the central highlands of Mexico. Agrociencia [online]. 2008, vol.42, n.6, pp.703-716. ISSN 2521-9766.

Located on the Central Highlands of México, El Bajío is an important agricultural region that faces water shortage, and therefore, it is necessary to increase aquifer recharge and decrease irrigated area. Reforestation and agricultural reconversion based on tropical deciduous forest shrub species can help to achieve these goals. Probability maps of predicted presence (PP) in El Bajío were generated for twelve shrub species. PP probability was considered representative of the potential distribution of the species. Biophysical variables spatially digitalized by Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática (INEGI), botanical records from regional collections, and shared Comisión nacional para el conocimiento y uso de la biodiversidad (CONABIO) data bases were used. The data were processed with the genetic algorithm GARP (Genetic Algorithm for Rule-setting Prediction). The resulting predictions were different among the legumes, but the following species were outstanding for their high PP: Caesalpinia spp. and Pithecellobium dulce in central and southwestern El Bajío; Calliandra spp., Eysenhardtia polystachya, Lysiloma microphylla, and Senna polyantha in the north; and most of the legumes in the eastern zone. Contrary to expectations, Prosopis laevigata and Acacia farnesiana were not the species with the largest area of high PP.

Keywords : Tropical deciduous forest; potential distribution; fundamental niche; GARP; predicted probability; reforestation.