Abstract

RODRIGUEZ-TREJO, Dante A. et al. Modeling forest fire danger in the zones affected by hurricane Dean. Agrociencia [online]. 2011, vol.45, n.5, pp.593-608. ISSN 2521-9766.

Forests affected by hurricanes accumulate large forest fuel loads in a short time that along with the local fire misuse and the sensibility of the tropical forests, make them vulnerable to the occurrence of catastrophic wildfires. In 2007, Dean Hurricane affected Quintana Roo, Campeche and Yucatán forests. In order to generate useful information for developing fire management plans in the region by state and federal authorities, the aim of this study was to estimate forest fuel loads generated by the passage of the hurricane, to model the fire danger and identify priority areas for protection. Samples were collected in 165 conglomerates in Quintana Roo, Campeche and Yucatán in 2007. The fire danger combined risk (perimeter of agricultural areas) and forest fire hazard (fuel load). Spatial estimates were made from multivariate models (kriging), with which maps were drawn in a geographic information system (GIS). Mode for loads was 40-60 Mg ha^{- 1}, the average 40 Mg ha^{- 1}, and the maximum 137 Mg ha^{- 1}. A total of 992 000 ha had very high-extreme hazard. The biggest impacts were at the eastern part of Quintana Roo, and fell to the western part, as the hurricane lost strength by friction with the earth.

Keywords : disturbances; fire; tropical forests.

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