Abstract

SALAS, Emmanuel Gerardo; LORIA DIAZ DE GUZMAN, Eduardo Gilberto  and  DIAZ, Eliseo. The paradox of Mexican migration to the US 2007-2012. Pap. poblac [online]. 2016, vol.22, n.87, pp.183-200. ISSN 2448-7147.

Based on an extension of Todaro's (1976) canonical migration model, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) (2007Q3-2012Q3, Q indicates the corresponding quarter. Here, the period from the third quarter of 2007 until the same quarter of 2012.) Was estimated. We prove that the decline in Mexican migratory flows to the United States since 2005 is related to the strengthening of the latter country's punitive actions, aimed at undocumented immigration, and also to the rise in sectorial and regional unemployment in the US relative to Mexico's unemployment rates. Some other additional and new factors, such as rising monetary costs, risks and dangers, including the death of migrants that trek through isolated areas, have also reduced attempts to cross into the United States.

Keywords : Deportations; migration attempts; relative unemployment; VECM; weak exogeneity.