Abstract

MENDOZA PONCE, Alma Virgen; CORONA NUNEZ, Rogelio Omar; GALICIA SARMIENTO, Leopoldo  and  GARCIA GUERRERO, Víctor Manuel. Population and economic projections under different scenarios for Mexico. Pap. poblac [online]. 2019, vol.25, n.99, pp.9-43.  Epub Feb 25, 2020. ISSN 2448-7147.  https://doi.org/10.22185/24487147.2019.99.02.

Existing scenarios that include population and economic projections do not allow to be used at sub-national levels. In developing countries, information at the sub-national level and the contextualization of scenarios is scarce. The objective of this paper is to show how these limitations can be overcome by developing: 1) demographic (probabilistic and deterministic) and economic (probabilistic) projections under different scenarios and temporal and spatial scales, and 2) spatialize the distribution of the population at a resolution of one km2. The results indicate that by 2050, the Mexican population could be between 22 to 55 percent larger than in 2010 and have a GDP growth between 0.54 and 2.5 percent. This study shows how sub-national socio-economic scenarios are necessary for the assessment of the vulnerability of socio-ecological systems.

Keywords : Scenarios; global environmental change; demography; Mexico.