Abstract

ROMAN SANCHEZ, Yuliana Gabriela; MONTES DE OCA VARGAS, Hugo  and  SOBERON MORA, José Antonio. Mortality and projections by causes of death in the State of Mexico, 1980-2050. Pap. poblac [online]. 2020, vol.26, n.105, pp.155-182.  Epub Oct 11, 2021. ISSN 2448-7147.  https://doi.org/10.22185/24487147.2020.105.25.

The main objective of this article is to analyze the mortality by causes the population of State of Mexico from 1980 to 2015, and to estimate projections of mortality according to seven main causes of death for the year 2050. To do the above, four data sources were used: Vital statistics, Population and Housing Censuses, Population and Housing Counts and the Intercensal Survey (2015). Likewise, specific mortality rates standardized by age and sex were estimated, while mortality projections by cause of death were calculated using the Gamma estimation method. The results suggested that the main causes of death by 2050 will be those that until now are non-communicable diseases, or also called chronic degenerative diseases. Which can bring as consequences the increase of economic expenses in health, medical attention, the increase in the hours for the care of older adults. All this could lead to changes in the roles and workloads of society.

Keywords : Mortality by causes; mortality projections; state of Mexico.