Abstract

HERRERA-GARCIA, Alfonso  and  GONZALEZ-MORENO, Jonatan Omar. Demand model of the air activity in Mexico. Ing. invest. y tecnol. [online]. 2019, vol.20, n.4, 00006.  Epub Nov 15, 2019. ISSN 2594-0732.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fi.25940732e.2019.20n4.042.

Although there are various factors favouring travel by the air mode, one of them is purchasing power of users. The purpose of this research was to establish a model to estimate the air service demand for the different Mexican airports, based on marginalization degree of the inhabitants that they serve. Spatial accessibility method was used to delimit the zone of influence of each airport and in order to establish the demand models, statistical analysis of simple and multiple linear regressions, hypothesis tests and analysis of variance were conducted. With the obtained models, it was found that the air service demand can be explained by the marginalization degree of the population in the zone of influence of each airport, both domestic (adjusted R2 = 64.74 %) and international flights (adjusted R2 = 75.64 %). This is the first time that demand models are estimated for all the Mexican airports considering spatial accessibility and marginalization degree of population. In all cases of regression analysis, the variable that had effect on the passengers demand was the lowest marginalization degree. Also, it was observed that based on the standardized residuals, it is possible to objectively detect those airports that have greater potential to generate passenger demand in their zone of influence, as happened in the case of Pachuca airport, and airports which work as hubs.

Keywords : Airport; demand; domestic flight; international flight; marginalization; model; zone of influence.