Abstract

DAVILA-ORTIZ, Rodrigo; ALGARA-SILLER, Marcos  and  VELAZQUEZ-ZAPATA, Juan Alberto. Variability in the climate change impact on the hydrological regime of two basins located in the Huasteca region. Ing. invest. y tecnol. [online]. 2020, vol.21, n.3, 00001.  Epub Dec 02, 2020. ISSN 2594-0732.  https://doi.org/10.22201/fi.25940732e.2020.21.3.021.

Mexico is a country with high vulnerability to climate change due to its geographical and social features. In this context, the hydroclimatic simulation is a valuable tool to estimate the impact of climate change on the water resources. This work evaluates the impact of climate change in two basins located in the Huasteca region, Mexico: The Valles River Basin and the Gallinas River Basin. The streamflow was simulated with a hydrological model fed with climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for a reference period (1971-2000) and two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2100). The results show a decrease on the hydrological indicators which vary according to the RCP and the horizon considered. For example, in the Gallinas River Basin (horizon 2071-2100) the simulation estimates a decrease in the 10-y high flow indicator of - 21 % and - 81 % under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively. For the Valles River Basin, the estimated decrease for the same horizon is - 40 % and - 95 % under RCP45 and - RCP8.5 respectively.

Keywords : Climate model; hydrological simulation; high flows; climate change impact.