Abstract

FUENTES FLORES, Noé Aarón; GONZALEZ KONIG, Gabriel; BRUGUES RODRIGUEZ, Alejandro  and  RAMIREZ CERVANTES, Alejandra. Confidence Levels of Excess Mortality in Mexican States in 2020. Econ. soc. territ [online]. 2022, vol.22, n.69, pp.603-630.  Epub Oct 16, 2022. ISSN 2448-6183.  https://doi.org/10.22136/est20221788.

The official estimate of all-cause excess mortality (EM) during this SARS-CoV-2 crisis (COVID-19) represents a major effort in quantifying direct and indirect deaths caused by the virus. However, the fact that state EM estimates are not statistically valid makes them useless (or unreliable) for public policy purposes. To provide statistical validity for state EM we employed the lognormal distribution and tested the null hypothesis that state EM is similar to the value that would occur in the absence of a pandemic. The null hypothesis of the lognormal model was rejected.

Keywords : COVID-19; Excess Mortality; Hypothesis Tests and Federal Entities.

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