Abstract

PRUDENCIO, Guillermo Guzmán  and  RODRIGUEZ-LOPEZ, Fernando. Ethnic Vote in Bolivia: Cohesion, Disintegration and Ethnic Cleavages. Polít. gob [online]. 2018, vol.25, n.1, pp.65-100. ISSN 1665-2037.

We propose a theoretical framework to analyze from a quantitative point of view the devices that may have led to the emergence of ethnic voting in Bolivia. The first part provides a review of political and historical changes in recent years, which resulted in mas and Evo Morales assuming the presidency. The second part presents the theoretical construct and then tests it through the estimation of a multinomial logit model on data from surveys referred to the latest four presidential elections. The main hypothesis is built from the basis of ethnic structure, and presents political discourse as a cohesive element against the action of ethnic-disruptive variables, therefore decisive for the emergence of relevant ethnic cleavages and the subsequent appearance of ethnic vote.

Keywords : Bolivia; ethnic vote; ethnic cleavages; indigenism.