Abstract

CHAVEZ-MARTIN DEL CAMPO, Juan Carlos  and  GOMEZ, Manuel. Halving Poverty in Mexico. Econ. mex. Nueva época [online]. 2009, vol.18, n.1, pp.107-121. ISSN 1665-2045.

We estimate the required time and the minimum necessary growth rate to halve poverty incidence and poverty intensity in Mexico's rural and urban areas for a series of counterfactual distribution and growth scenarios. Results show that, given the current income distribution, per capita incomes in the rural area would have to grow faster -in some cases eight times faster- than they have done historically to shrink poverty by half by 2015. In contrast, income in the urban sector would have to grow around 1 per cent per year to reach the same goal, which seems a more reasonable outcome given its behavior in past years.

Keywords : economic growth; millennium development goals; poverty goals; poverty measurement; Mexico.