Abstract

AYALA GAYTAN, Edgardo Arturo  and  CHAPA CANTU, Joana Cecilia. Short Run Effects of International Agricultural Commodity Price Shocks in Mexico. Econ. mex. Nueva época [online]. 2011, vol.20, n.2, pp.311-355. ISSN 1665-2045.

We formulate an extended input-output price model to analyze the short run effects of the international commodity price shocks in Mexico. The model includes 51 productive sectors, two labor inputs (urban and rural), one capital input, 10 final goods and 20 households (urban and rural income groups). Once we take into account the links between agricultural and industrial products, the commodity price shocks increase the general index of the cost of living by 1.3 per cent. Without considering any income effect, the poorer the family the higher the negative price effect is on consumption demand. But once we incorporate the higher profitability of the major crops, the net welfare of rural families rises. Finally, contrary to the common belief, indexing wages to prices to protect individuals from a higher cost of living hurts the poorest families.

Keywords : input-output model; commodities prices; income distribution; welfare.