Abstract

LORIA, Eduardo. Mexico 2020-2024: Two Macroeconomic Scenarios. Rev. mex. econ. finanz [online]. 2020, vol.15, n.2, pp.145-172.  Epub Nov 25, 2020. ISSN 2448-6795.  https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v15i2.482.

In a context of high internal uncertainty that has been aggravated by the complex global economic, political (and now health) environment, a numerical analysis is made from dynamic stochastic simulations derived from Eudoxio: Macroeconometric Model of the Mexican Economy (Loría, 2019a) that generates two macroeconomic scenarios for Mexico (inertial and pessimistic) in its main economic activity variables for the 2020-2024 horizon. The inertial scenario shows an average growth of GDP and employment of 1.27 % and 1.6 % against 0.64 % and 1.04 % of the pessimistic scenario, respectively. An optimistic scenario is not visualized due to the absence of articulation of policies and facts that foster economic growth by strengthening security and, therefore, business confidence. To consider an optimistic scenario, a dramatic change in public policies and official discourse is needed to recover fundamental aspects of the energy reform and address the enormous challenges presented by the rise of crime and the fiscal issues over of economic growth.

Keywords : C32; E27; F47; macroeconometric models; scenarios; stochastic dynamic simulations.