Abstract

LAJOUS, Adrián. Oil production prospects to 2025. Economía UNAM [online]. 2011, vol.8, n.23, pp.78-90. ISSN 1665-952X.

Mexican oil and natural gas production forecasts to 2025, prepared jointly by the Ministry of Energy and Pemex, are reviewed in this paper. These projections were used in the National Energy Strategy that the Government proposed to Congress in February of 2011. In mid-August it has not yet been approved. The intention of this article is to highlight the main methodological limitations of the exercise and document the extraordinary optimism of production prospects and reserve additions, as well as the lack of realism in investments required to reach proposed targets. One of the main issues is the very high and rapidly growing share of production attributed to fields that are yet to be discovered. By 2025 two thirds of production would have this origin.

Keywords : Hydrocarbon (Extraction and Refining); Exhaustive Resources; Government Policy.