Abstract

ALARCO TOSONI, Germán. Free Trade, Growth and Potential Product in Chile, México and Peru. Economía UNAM [online]. 2017, vol.14, n.42, pp.24-46. ISSN 1665-952X.

Impacts on the gdp growth and potential output of the fta between Chile, Mexico and Peru with U.S. are analyzed. We review the existing literature and highlight the need for complementary policies to ensure their success. Chile and Peru export more of the same goods with reduced processing and technological content, while in Mexico the most advanced products are predominating. Various structural break tests were performed, concluding that ftas have not changed the trajectory of gdp growth in the three economies. However, there are breaks in the case of exports in Mexico and other variables of Chile. Using Thirlwall´s growth model we conclude that the export capacity has been raised but has not increased potential output by increasing the elasticity imports-product. The three economies have had higher growth of their potential product before the respective trade agreements were signed.

Keywords : FTA; Exports Composition; Structural Break; Economic Growth; Potential Product; F13; F14 y O24.