Objective:

Using information from the Google Mobility Report, particularly the one related to residential stay, we estimated the effect of social distancing on new cases and deaths from COVID-19 in the Mexican States.

Methodology:

We employ a dynamic econometric model which takes into account the potential endogeneity in the registration of new cases, as well as the lagged effect of the social distancing variable.

Results:

The findings indicate a negative and significant relationship between residential stay and the growth rate of cases and deaths. Moreover, the proposed econometric model is used to perform simulations of the possible effects of the level of social distancing on the levels of cases and deaths generated by the COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico until July the 5th.

Limitations:

The study does not take into account the economic costs associated with higher levels of social distancing.

Originality:

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study for the case of Mexico that analyze the effect of social distancing on infections and deaths from COVID-19 at the regional level.

Conclusion:

According to the models, it is estimated that if there had been higher rates of social distancing, between 135 000 and 143 000 fewer cases of COVID-19 would have been registered.